Is Austin’s real estate shifting to a more balanced market in 2025?
As of mid-2025, the Austin housing market is showing early signs of a shift; away from the red-hot seller’s market of previous years and toward a more balanced real estate landscape. This change comes on the heels of rapid tech-sector growth, rising housing supply, and a more price-conscious buyer base in the face of elevated mortgage rates.
Fueled by rapid tech-sector expansion and surging housing supply, the market has begun to cool. While Austin remains one of the nation’s hottest metros, rising listings and longer listing times suggest a move toward equilibrium. In this article, we’ll explore whether Austin is transitioning from a seller’s market to a more balanced environment, how future housing demand and home values may respond to ongoing tech-job growth, and what this means for both buyers and sellers. We'll also highlight projections for home-price appreciation in the coming years.
What Does a “Balanced Market” Even Mean?
A balanced market occurs when there’s a healthy match between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers in the market, typically reflected by 5–7 months of inventory and homes selling within 60–90 days. Right now, Austin's market is leaning away from sellers’ control, but not fully balanced… yet.
Inventory Growth Signals Shifting Conditions
In 2025, Austin's housing inventory has surged, leading to less competition and more room for negotiation. As of June, the region had over 17,000 active listings, and many homes are sitting on the market for over 48 days on average¹.
Nationally, there are over 500,000 more home listings than active buyers, a supply-demand imbalance not seen in over a decade². In Austin, this is translating into slower sales and more frequent price reductions.
Housing Expansion + Tech Job Growth = Stability Ahead
Austin continues to benefit from rapid job growth in tech, healthcare, and education. Major employers, including Apple, Oracle, Tesla, and more recently Realtor.com have expanded campuses or relocated headquarters to the area³. These high-paying jobs attract out-of-state transplants and support long-term housing demand.
Additionally, newer homes dominate the local inventory - the median home age in Austin is just 8 years⁴. This boom in post-2015 construction means much of the available housing stock meets modern standards and offers energy efficiency, making it attractive to younger professionals and growing families.
Market Health Index & Home Price Projections
The Market Health Index (MHI) (a real estate metric used to track market strength shows Austin) at just 19.3% in May 2025, far below the 30–70% that signals market balance⁵. However, industry analysts project that with continued job growth and stable mortgage rates, the MHI could return to 30% by 2027 ⁵.
What does that mean for home values? Modest but steady growth is expected. Current forecasts predict 5–7% annual appreciation over the next two years⁵, which would place the median home value at approximately $475K–$482K by mid-2027.
What Buyers & Sellers Need to Know
For Buyers:
Leverage is shifting in your favor.
More listings and less competition mean better deals and seller concessions.
While rates remain around 6.8%, the price softening could offset financing costs in the short term.
For Sellers:
Pricing strategically is more important than ever.
Expect homes to sit longer and to require staging, repairs, or updates to compete.
Long gone are the days of 24-hour bidding wars… for now.
The Bottom Line
Austin isn’t a fully balanced market yeT, but it’s getting there. Rising inventory, slower sales, and housing expansion are cooling the market, while strong job growth continues to support demand. If you’re planning to buy, this could be an opportune time to secure a home before values begin rising again. If you’re planning to sell, understanding the new dynamics and preparing accordingly will be key to success.
Sources:
¹ [Team Price Real Estate – Austin Market Reports]
² New York Post
³ Axios Austin Newsletter – June 2025
⁴ Axios Local – Austin Home Sales
⁵ Axios “Housing Crystal Ball” Analysis